Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 100120.915942 105499.396359 110871.906313 116637.593138 122646.439473 128720.485414 135320.882177
2025-09-28 90949.780986 99161.926164 107589.444732 116873.693653 126803.748301 137095.207404 148556.520278
2025-10-05 85615.903469 95877.505037 106632.260328 118722.222156 131911.905982 145842.066565 161643.761244
2025-10-12 81371.466714 93192.529357 105801.391741 120214.902900 136197.514234 153339.060708 173075.209709
2025-10-19 77488.894246 90520.525235 104637.004658 121011.345666 139426.168570 159439.590439 182777.707315
2025-10-26 73790.732330 87770.878073 103128.882211 121179.856635 141738.882452 164348.272974 191013.406502
2025-11-02 70758.817543 85571.272570 102053.962407 121660.756945 144249.085969 169355.870595 199267.892704
2025-11-09 67773.266684 83253.659521 100689.142821 121663.760648 146087.244383 173502.954636 206472.775861
2025-11-16 65797.603338 81997.037740 100445.531522 122867.315549 149229.989103 179087.362497 215296.943435
2025-11-23 63265.168102 79961.879944 99184.000209 122780.501164 150786.347063 182779.111150 221894.111351
2025-11-30 61898.085270 79245.742812 99414.867384 124398.432942 154302.525324 188728.725552 231124.912884
2025-12-07 60339.246431 78223.526795 99216.547939 125449.025922 157105.368931 193820.456726 239350.379253
2025-12-14 58357.309827 76633.994045 98299.176260 125614.310893 158851.981540 197692.358803 246196.819504
2025-12-21 56509.119723 75145.040304 97448.159697 125812.105157 160603.996508 201556.337285 253043.731057
2025-12-28 55665.692771 74869.560141 98051.476091 127763.465057 164471.857161 207960.698270 262965.973206
2026-01-04 54701.293927 74398.344692 98377.453011 129345.783779 167875.046246 213808.809860 272244.658929
2026-01-11 53443.777808 73506.291321 98137.786484 130190.784748 170347.897608 218521.402220 280159.230759
2026-01-18 51944.487177 72252.758447 97398.448656 130369.554650 171964.210954 222171.903605 286778.766084
2026-01-25 50676.998031 71257.376401 96948.499329 130880.068214 173970.415316 226290.573841 293979.998310
2026-02-01 49246.546583 70003.765360 96128.241896 130883.250377 175311.055587 229571.551055 300147.729190
2026-02-08 48445.525385 69553.615930 96318.447023 132160.896050 178253.304764 234845.294716 308810.038051
2026-02-15 47094.741001 68330.630951 95470.548641 132068.741463 179429.412744 237901.815796 314710.864248
2026-02-22 46566.752152 68193.900189 96025.771812 133786.076054 182919.148533 243873.349909 324294.381440